Copper in the EU-27 economyvalue, circularity and security of supply

At a glance

Central values for 2024. The line below each figure shows the 90% uncertainty band (P5–P95) against a scale from zero. Gross contributions, not net effects; taxes are an attribution, not a fiscal balance.

1. EUR 38.2 bn with the supply chain

   The extended copper value chain generated about EUR 19.6 bn of gross value added in 2024 and employed about 183,300 people; with the supply chain inside the EU, EUR 38.2 bn and about 418,000 jobs. Semis and castings (E4) and cables (E5) account for 56% of direct value added, mining including KGHM’s smelters (E0) for 25%.

2. Recycling: EUR 2.92 bn directly

   Collection and trade of scrap (E1) and secondary smelting and refining (E2) generated EUR 2,920 m of value added and about 30,300 jobs, EUR 5,350 m with the supply chain. Semis producers that melt scrap directly account for a further EUR 1,440 m in proportion to their scrap input.

3. EUR 13.4 bn for public finances

   Activity in the chain is associated with about EUR 13.4 bn of taxes and social contributions excluding VAT, EUR 8.7 bn of it on labour; the mineral extraction tax paid by KGHM adds about EUR 810 m. Copper-specific amounts of indirect emission cost compensation are known only for Germany and for KGHM.

4. 70 Mt of copper in use

   The dynamic model puts the copper stock at about 157 kg per person. End-of-life products released about 2,590 kt of copper in 2024, of which about 1,340 kt was recovered (52%).

5. 1.0–5.6 Mt CO₂e potentially avoided

   With one-for-one replacement of global average primary copper, secondary copper produced in the EU potentially avoided about 5.1 Mt CO₂e, copper of end-of-life origin alone 3.4 Mt. At the footprint of the primary part of EU production (2.0 t CO₂e/t) the result is about 2.2 Mt.

6. Concentrate and cathodes imported, scrap exported

   EU mine output equals 29% and EU refined output 83% of refined copper used. Concentrate imports come mainly from Brazil (23%), refined copper imports from Chile (38%). The EU exported 200 kt more copper scrap than it imported, 43% of exports going to China.

7. More circularity needs more scrap

   In the high-circularity scenario (2035) secondary copper rises to 2,010 kt and direct value added to EUR 22.3 bn; the additional secondary feed exceeds the growth of domestic scrap by about 174 kt of copper – more than the net extra-EU exports of copper in scrap in 2024 (69 kt).

Gross contribution at fixed input-output coefficients, not net jobs. With Eurostat’s symmetric EU‑27 input-output table (2023) instead of FIGARO, value added with the supply chain changes by +0.5%.

SourceTaxes excluding VAT; model estimates – an attribution, not a fiscal balance. The mineral extraction tax paid by KGHM is included as the excess over average production taxes in mining. Compensation of indirect emission costs is not deducted.

SourceDirect melting: copper in semis and castings (3,538 kt) less apparent use of refined copper (2,672 kt), adjusted for other uses and exports of unwrought brass; JRC for the EU‑28 in 2014: 1,042 kt. Bottom-up domestic supply is 51 kt higher than the residual estimate – a difference indistinguishable from zero, whose sign is not interpreted.

Limitations

• Results are gross contributions at fixed coefficients, not net policy effects; taxes are an attribution, not a fiscal balance.
• EU‑27 SBS aggregates are rounded and partly confidential – missing cells were completed from Member State sums; the copper shares of NACE 07.29, 46.77, 38.3 and 27.32 are assumptions.
• Direct melting is not reported – the 954 kt estimate comes from the copper bridge; the split of secondary copper into end-of-life and new scrap depends on the new-scrap rate (13–25%).
• Environmental values are screening values, not ISO 14044 life-cycle assessments; treating the EU as one economy nets out trade between Member States.

The report was prepared with the support of artificial-intelligence tools for data processing, modelling and drafting.