Analysis · November 2026
Aluminium in the EU-27 economyvalue, circularity and security of supply
The nine smelters of the EU‑27 produce about 1,100 kt of primary aluminium, while refiners, rolling mills, extruders and foundries produce about 4,510 kt of secondary aluminium – 41% of the aluminium first used. Net extra-EU imports of unwrought aluminium are 5,460 kt, and the value chain with its EU suppliers generates EUR 31.9 bn of value added and 382,000 jobs.
At a glance
31.9EUR bn
gross value added – aluminium value chain with its EU suppliers
381,863jobs
in the aluminium value chain and at its EU suppliers
4,508kt
of secondary aluminium – 2,508 kt remelted by semis producers and foundries and 2,000 kt from refiners
41%
of the aluminium first used in the EU comes from secondary materials
168Mt
of aluminium in use – in vehicles, buildings, networks and products (374 kg per person)
41.3Mt CO₂e
of emissions potentially avoided each year by secondary aluminium – mostly outside the EU
Central values for 2024. The line below each figure shows the 90% uncertainty band (P5–P95) against a scale from zero. Gross contributions, not net effects; taxes are an attribution, not a fiscal balance. Tonnages include alloying elements.
Seven findings
EUR 31.9 bn with the supply chain
The extended aluminium value chain generated about EUR 18.5 bn of gross value added in 2024 and employed about 220,000 people; with the supply chain inside the EU, EUR 31.9 bn and about 382,000 jobs. Rolling, extrusion, wire and foil (A4) and castings (A5) account for 84% of direct value added, primary smelting (A3) for 2%.
Recycling: EUR 2.24 bn directly
Collection and trade of scrap (A1) and refining of scrap into casting alloys (A2) generated EUR 2,240 m of value added and about 30,600 jobs, EUR 4,190 m with the supply chain. Attributing the value added of semis producers and foundries in proportion to the scrap share of their metal input would add EUR 3,660 m.
EUR 11.0 bn for public finances
Activity in the chain is associated with about EUR 11.0 bn of taxes and social contributions excluding VAT, EUR 8.1 bn of it on labour. The known indirect emission cost compensation for aluminium producers in Germany, Spain and France – about EUR 0.41 bn – is of the same order as the value added of primary smelting.
168 Mt of aluminium in use
The dynamic model puts the aluminium stock at about 374 kg per person. End-of-life products released about 4,510 kt of aluminium in 2024, of which about 2,970 kt was recovered (66%); packaging accounts for 24% of the outflow.
19.7–59.7 Mt CO₂e potentially avoided
With one-for-one replacement of primary aluminium at the footprint of the European consumption mix (10.1 t CO₂e/t), secondary aluminium produced in the EU potentially avoided about 41.3 Mt CO₂e, aluminium from domestic end-of-life scrap alone 22.1 Mt. European primary aluminium has a footprint of 6.6 t, imported metal 13.2 t.
Metal and bauxite imported, scrap exported
EU primary smelting covers 10% and all unwrought aluminium made in the EU 28% of the aluminium first used. Bauxite comes 72% from Guinea, unwrought aluminium mainly from Norway (23%). The EU exported 1,260 kt of aluminium scrap and imported 660 kt; 27% of exports went to India.
More circularity needs more scrap
In the high-circularity scenario (2035) secondary aluminium rises to 5,640 kt and direct value added to EUR 20.4 bn; the additional scrap feed exceeds the growth of domestic scrap by about 215 kt, and net imports of unwrought aluminium are about 5,200 kt.
From bauxite to castings – six links
The EU‑27 is treated as one economy: deliveries between Member States are domestic, and only trade with countries outside the EU is foreign trade. The AL‑EU model covers six segments – from bauxite and alumina to aluminium castings.
Bauxite and alumina
Mine in Greece; refineries in IE, DE, ES, EL
- EUR m GVA
- 263
- jobs
- 2,519
Scrap collection and trade
Aluminium share of waste and scrap trade and materials recovery
- EUR m GVA
- 1,796
- jobs
- 25,320
Scrap refining
Casting alloys from mixed scrap, turnings and dross
- EUR m GVA
- 447
- jobs
- 5,275
Primary smelting
Nine operating smelters with anode plants
- EUR m GVA
- 432
- jobs
- 6,447
Rolling, extrusion, wire and foil
Semis; remelting of wrought-alloy scrap
- EUR m GVA
- 10,732
- jobs
- 103,150
Aluminium castings
Castings for vehicles, machinery and equipment
- EUR m GVA
- 4,845
- jobs
- 77,097
Semis and castings
transport · construction · packaging · electrical
10,668 ktof aluminium in semis and castings made in the EU, 2024
Economy
Value added, jobs and taxes
Environment
Avoided emissions and bauxite residue
Strategy
Metal and bauxite imports, scrap exports, CRMA benchmarks
EUR 31.9 bn of value added and 382,000 jobs
EU suppliers add EUR 13,360 m of value added and about 162,100 jobs, household spending a further EUR 8,650 m and about 113,300 jobs. The value-added multiplier is 1.72 (type I) and 2.19 (type II).
- Direct
- EU supply chain
- Employee spending
Gross value added, EUR m
Jobs
Gross contribution at fixed input-output coefficients, not net jobs. The value added of primary smelting depends on the electricity price assumed in the cost account (EUR 45/MWh central).
EUR 11.0 bn of taxes; smelter compensation of the same order as their value added
Activity in the chain is associated with about EUR 11,030 m of taxes and contributions excluding VAT: EUR 5,400 m in the segments, EUR 3,450 m at suppliers and EUR 2,180 m from household spending. Aluminium production is eligible for indirect emission cost compensation; only some Member States publish amounts by company.
Taxes and contributions by category, EUR m, 2024
Value added per person employed, EUR thousand, 2024
SourceTaxes excluding VAT; model estimates – an attribution, not a fiscal balance. Neither free allocation of emission allowances (about EUR 190 m) nor indirect emission cost compensation is deducted.
4,508 kt of secondary aluminium – more from remelting than from refiners
Refiners turn mixed scrap, turnings and dross into casting alloys (2,000 kt). Rolling mills, extruders and foundries remelt sorted alloy scrap and scrap from their customers; statistics do not report it – AL‑EU derives 2,508 kt from a metal bridge.
kt, 2024
Domestic supply of aluminium in scrap – two methods, kt
- End-of-life scrap (dynamic model) · 2,972
- New (fabrication) scrap · 1,650
- Residual estimate (feed and extra-EU trade) · 5,129
SourceRemelting: aluminium in semis and castings (10,668 kt) less EU primary aluminium, refiner alloys and net imports of unwrought aluminium, plus other uses. The residual estimate differs from the bottom-up one by 507 kt (90% band −220 to 1,310 kt), not distinguishable from zero.
168 Mt of aluminium in buildings, vehicles and products
The dynamic model of aluminium in use (1960–2035) links the industry to the stock from which end-of-life scrap flows. With the central inflow growth the stock reaches 216 Mt in 2035 and end-of-life scrap recovery about 3,870 kt.
Aluminium stock in use in the EU‑27, Mt
Stock in use by end use, Mt, 2024
Secondary aluminium: 0.42 t CO₂e against 10.1 t for primary
A tonne of primary aluminium used in Europe – a mix of European and imported metal – carries about 10.1 t CO₂e. Secondary aluminium produced in the EU has a screening footprint of 0.35 t (remelting) and 0.50 t CO₂e (refining) per tonne – 0.42 t on average.
Carbon footprint of a tonne of aluminium, t CO₂e (cradle to gate)
Emissions potentially avoided, 2024
41.3 Mt CO₂e
Emissions potentially avoided by variant, kt CO₂e
What secondary aluminium produced in the EU helps avoid
- About 10.1 Mt of bauxite residue and 110 kt of spent pot lining a year – mostly outside the EU.
- 23,695 kt CO₂e from remelting by semis producers and foundries and 17,584 kt from scrap refining.
- At the 2024 EU ETS price the potentially avoided emissions are worth EUR 2,670 m, at the EIB shadow cost of carbon EUR 8,570 m.
Verified emissions of 17 aluminium installations in the EU ETS – including alumina refineries and anode plants – were 4.86 Mt CO₂e in 2024. The result depends more on the counterfactual (19,700–59,652 kt) than on the screening values.
Importer of metal and bauxite, exporter of scrap and alumina
The EU imports unwrought aluminium from outside the EU – mainly from Norway, Iceland and the United Arab Emirates – and bauxite, 72% of it from Guinea, and exports alumina and scrap. Scrap imports come mainly from Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Norway; exports go to India, Thailand and Malaysia.
Balance of extra-EU aluminium trade by stage of processing, EUR m
- Aluminium scrap
- Semis
- Unwrought aluminium
- Bauxite
Largest extra-EU partners, 2024 · 657 kt
- CH162.3
- UK128.8
- NO49.0
- US43.7
- IL27.5
- CA24.5
- AU22.4
- MA22.1
Largest extra-EU partners, 2024 · 1,258 kt
- IN345.6
- TH157.2
- MY117.1
- PK102.0
- TR91.7
- HK80.7
- CN71.8
- CH55.9
Where aluminium is smelted in the EU‑27
The only operating bauxite mine is in Greece, alumina refineries are in Ireland, Germany, Spain and Greece, and smelters in France, Germany, Romania, Greece and Sweden. Five smelters produced no primary aluminium in 2024.
- Bauxite mine
- Alumina refineries
- Alumina refinery with smelter
- Primary aluminium smelters
- Smelters without output in 2024
List of installations
- Metlen; ImerysDistomo (EL) · Bauxite mineParnassos–Giona bauxite mining area
- Aughinish AluminaAskeaton (IE) · Alumina refineriesalumina refinery
- Alúmina Española (Alcoa)San Ciprián (ES) · Alumina refineriesalumina refinery
- Aluminium Oxid StadeStade (DE) · Alumina refineriesalumina refinery
- AlteoGardanne (FR) · Alumina refineriesspecialty aluminas
- Metlen (Aluminium of Greece)Agios Nikolaos (EL) · Alumina refinery with smelteralumina refinery and smelter
- Aluminium DunkerqueLoon-Plage (FR) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- Trimet Saint-Jean-de-MaurienneSaint-Jean-de-Maurienne (FR) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- Trimet HamburgHamburg (DE) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- Trimet EssenEssen (DE) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- Trimet VoerdeVoerde (DE) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- AlroSlatina (RO) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- KubalSundsvall (SE) · Primary aluminium smelterssmelter
- Alcoa San CipriánSan Ciprián (ES) · Smelters without output in 2024smelter, restart 2024–2026
- SlovalcoŽiar nad Hronom (SK) · Smelters without output in 2024smelter, restart on 31.08.2026
- TalumKidričevo (SI) · Smelters without output in 2024smelter, primary production stopped in 2023
- AldelDelfzijl (NL) · Smelters without output in 2024smelter, primary production halted in 2021
- Speira RheinwerkNeuss (DE) · Smelters without output in 2024smelter, primary production ended in 2023
Milestones 2024–2027
The EU aluminium value chain is shaped by raw-materials policy, policy on scrap and trade, the emissions trading system with CBAM and indirect cost compensation, electricity prices and measures taken by trading partners.
Critical Raw Materials Act
Bauxite, alumina and aluminium a strategic and critical raw material (Regulation (EU) 2024/1252).
Restriction of imports from Russia
Council Regulation (EU) 2025/395: quota on unwrought aluminium, full ban from 2027.
US Section 232 tariff
25% from 12 March 2025, 50% from 4 June 2025; from August also over 400 derivative product codes.
Steel and Metals Action Plan
COM(2025) 125: EU output covers 46% of demand; measures on scrap availability announced.
First list of strategic projects
BAUX-EU, GALLANT and LEADER in Greece.
CISAF state-aid framework
Temporary electricity price relief for energy-intensive users until 2030.
Customs surveillance of scrap
Monitoring of imports and exports of ferrous, aluminium and copper scrap.
CBAM definitive period
Aluminium (chapter 76) covered; default values for CN 7601 from 1.870 to 3.198 t CO₂e/t.
New EU ETS benchmarks
Primary aluminium: 1.423 t CO₂e/t for 2026–2030 (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1412).
Aluminium scrap measure
Draft 15% export duty reportedly put on hold; no measure adopted by 10 November 2026.
Second list of strategic projects
Slovalco, Arctial and the ElvalHalcor recycling centre.
Sale of CBAM certificates
First surrender of certificates on 30 September 2027.
More circularity needs more scrap
Three “what if” calculations at 2024 prices, with labour productivity rising 1.0% a year. End-of-life scrap recovery comes from the dynamic model, unwrought aluminium use from the bridge from semis and castings.
Value added with supply chain · EUR m
Jobs with supply chain · persons
Secondary aluminium · kt
Method in brief
AL‑EU applies the integrated IGMNiR model, developed for non-ferrous metals in Poland and for copper in the EU‑27, to aluminium in the EU‑27 treated as one economy. The national report on aluminium in Poland and AL‑EU are alternative perspectives that do not add up.
Scope and allocation
Six segments A0–A5 from EU‑27 structural business statistics (SBS) with aluminium shares; NACE 24.42 split by employment keys into alumina, refiners, smelters and semis.
Aluminium mass balance
Primary output by smelter, bridge from semis and castings to scrap remelting; domestic scrap supply residually and bottom-up.
Aluminium in use
Inflow-driven stock model 1960–2035, seven end uses, normally distributed lifetimes.
Economy and taxes
Leontief input-output model, type I and II, on the EU‑27 block of FIGARO 2024; smelters and refiners valued physically from a cost account.
Environment
Screening footprints of remelting and refining against primary aluminium; bauxite residue, spent pot lining; EU ETS emissions.
Strategy and uncertainty
Coverage indicators against the CRMA, HHI, stress tests; Monte Carlo with 10,000 draws and a Gaussian copula, variants and scenarios.
Limitations
- Results are gross contributions at fixed coefficients, not net policy effects; taxes are an attribution, not a fiscal balance.
- The secondary share (41%) was set by scaling PRODCOM semis volumes to the 38–40% reported by European Aluminium; the split between refiners and remelting comes from the model.
- Smelter value added is the residual of a cost account and depends on the electricity price; the employment keys of refiners and smelters were not checked against company data.
- Environmental values are screening values, not ISO 14044 life-cycle assessments; treating the EU as one economy nets out trade between Member States.
The report was prepared with the support of artificial-intelligence tools for data processing, modelling and drafting.
Download and cite
The full report covers the policy context, the aluminium balance, the dynamic model, all parameters with ranges and sources, control tests, the list of installations and the bibliography.
IGMNiR (2026), Aluminium in the EU-27 economy: value, circularity and security of supply. An integrated assessment of the aluminium industry in the European Union (AL-EU model), Economic Chamber of Non-Ferrous Metals and Recycling, November 2026.
Model run ID: ALEU-1.1-7e3c2686c5