Analysis · November 2026
Aluminium in the Polish economyvalue, circularity and security of supply
A country without a primary aluminium smelter has built one of Central Europe’s largest aluminium processing industries. The chain from scrap to products generates EUR 1.44 billion of value added, supports 29,000 jobs and can potentially avoid 3.3 Mt CO₂e a year.
At a glance
1.44EUR bn
of gross value added – the aluminium chain with its domestic suppliers
29,368persons employed
in the aluminium chain and its Polish suppliers
461EUR m
a year for public finances (PLN 1,986 m, excluding VAT)
3.28Mt CO₂e
of emissions potentially avoided a year through recycling
386kt
of aluminium scrap collected in Poland in 2024
38%
of aluminium consumption is covered by output from scrap – with no primary smelter since 2009
Central values for 2024. The line under each figure shows the 90% uncertainty band (P5–P95) on a scale from zero. Gross contribution, not net effects.
Seven findings
A large industry without a primary smelter
Poland has had no primary aluminium smelter since 2009, yet it has one of Central Europe’s largest aluminium processing sectors. In 2024 secondary alloy producers made about 260 kt of aluminium from scrap.
EUR 1.44 billion of value added
The aluminium value chain directly generates EUR 898 million of gross value added, EUR 1,438 million with domestic suppliers and EUR 1,690 million with employees’ spending. Semi-finished products – extrusion, rolling and foil – account for the largest share, 49%.
29,000 jobs and EUR 461 million in taxes
About 19,450 people work directly in the chain and about 29,350 including suppliers. Taxes and contributions linked to the chain amount to about EUR 461 million a year (PLN 1,986 million, excluding VAT).
A closed loop that works
In 2024 about 386 kt of aluminium scrap was collected in Poland, from which about 340 kt of metal can be recovered. Secondary alloy producers remelted about 295 kt of scrap. Aluminium packaging recycling reached 52.6%, and a deposit-return system for cans has operated since October 2025.
3.3 million tonnes of CO₂e less
A tonne of recycled aluminium carries about 0.45 t CO₂e against about 10.1 t for primary metal consumed in the EU – 96% less. Recycling scrap collected in Poland can potentially avoid about 3.3 Mt CO₂e and 52 PJ of primary energy a year, mostly at smelters outside Poland.
Importer of metal, exporter of products
Poland imports metal and semi-finished products (balance EUR −2,568 million) and exports structures, containers and other products with a surplus of EUR 1,420 million. 80% of metal imports come from the EU; the processing margin of domestic remelting is about EUR 148 million a year.
Regulation will shape the next decade
CBAM, a 60% packaging recycling target by 2030 and a future recycled-aluminium content requirement for new vehicles will change demand for recycled metal. In the “Circular aluminium 2035” scenario value added including supply chains rises by about EUR 174 million; in the stress scenario it would fall by about EUR 163 million.
From scrap to products – four links
The AL-PL model covers four segments: scrap collection and trade, secondary aluminium, semi-finished products and castings. Downstream come finished products – building systems, cans and structures – in which Poland runs a trade surplus.
Collection and trade
New and end-of-life scrap, sorting
- EUR m GVA
- 140
- employed
- 2,931
Secondary aluminium
Remelting and refining into foundry alloys
- EUR m GVA
- 73
- employed
- 760
Semi-finished products
Billets, extrusion, rolling, foil
- EUR m GVA
- 436
- employed
- 9,791
Castings
Engine and chassis parts, wheels
- EUR m GVA
- 248
- employed
- 5,956
Finished products
building systems · cans · structures
+EUR 1,420 mtrade surplus in products, 2024
Economy
Value added, jobs, taxes
Climate and resources
Avoided emissions, energy, residues
Strategy
Consumption coverage, trade, processing margin
EUR 1.44 billion of value added and 29,000 jobs
Purchases from Polish suppliers add EUR 541 million of value added and about 9,950 jobs, and employees’ spending a further EUR 251 million and about 5,450 jobs.
- Direct
- Supply chain
- Employees’ spending
Gross value added, EUR m
Persons employed
A gross contribution at fixed input–output coefficients, not net jobs; persons employed, not full-time equivalents.
386 kt of scrap collected in Poland
Scrap moves both ways across the EU single market – plants on each side of the border specialise in different alloys. The balance shows how much scrap collected in Poland returns to use as metal.
kt, 2024
× metal yield 0.88
96% less emissions on every recycled tonne
The difference comes from alumina electrolysis and the electricity it uses. Recycling bypasses it – it needs about 8 GJ of primary energy per tonne against about 160 GJ for primary production.
Carbon footprint per tonne of aluminium, t CO₂e
−96%
Potentially avoided emissions under variants, Mt CO₂e
How to read this result
- A conditional estimate: each recycled tonne replaces a tonne of primary metal with the EU consumption-mix footprint.
- Emissions are avoided mainly at primary smelters outside Poland – this does not reduce the national inventory; results for different countries must not be added up.
- Notional value: EUR 213 million at the EU ETS price and EUR 541 million at the EIB shadow price – not industry revenue.
Remelting generates about 52 kt of salt slag a year, processed to recover metal and salt; the replaced primary production would have generated about 799 kt of bauxite residue (red mud) – almost entirely outside Poland.
Importer of metal, exporter of products
Poland buys metal and semi-finished products and sells more highly processed products. Unwrought metal imports come mainly from the EU; the Netherlands is a trading and storage hub, so shipping countries differ from countries of origin.
Aluminium trade balance by processing stage, EUR m
- Products
- Unwrought metal
- Semi-finished products
Largest partners, 2025 · 695 kt
- NL243.7
- RU76.9
- SE70.1
- DK65.6
- DE60.3
- SK51.1
- KZ27.9
- CA25.1
Largest partners, 2025 · 251 kt
- DE54.9
- CZ33.5
- UA15.1
- SK11.1
- FR11.0
- SE10.9
- IT9.8
- HU9.7
Where the aluminium industry operates
Remelting is concentrated in Kęty, Gorzyce and Nowa Sól, extrusion in Małopolska, Wielkopolska and the Lublin region, and the rolling mill is in Konin. Foundries and product makers serve the automotive, construction and packaging sectors.
- Scrap remelting
- Semi-finished products
- Castings
- Products
List of plants
- Hydro Aluminium KętyKęty · Scrap remeltingScrap remelting to foundry alloysScale: 87.5 kt/yr; 128 staff
- Hydro Aluminium GorzyceGorzyce · Scrap remeltingScrap remelting to foundry and master alloysScale: 57.5 kt/yr; 137 staff
- Hydro Aluminium Nowa SólNowa Sól · Scrap remeltingScrap sorting (LIBS) and remeltingScale: 60 kt/yr alloys; 120 kt/yr sorting; 175 staff
- Grupa Kęty – wyciskanie, odlewniaKęty · Semi-finished productsBillet casting from scrap; extrusionScale: ~125 kt/yr extrusion; >30 kt scrap/yr
- Aluform (Grupa Kęty)Tychy · Semi-finished productsExtrusionScale: press shop
- Hydro Extrusion PolandChrzanów · Semi-finished productsExtrusionScale: >23 kt/yr; 250 staff
- Hydro Extrusion PolandTrzcianka · Semi-finished productsExtrusion, fabrication, anodisingScale: ~20 kt/yr; >700 staff
- Gränges KoninKonin · Semi-finished productsCasting, hot and cold rollingScale: new cold mill 2025
- Aliplast ExtrusionLublin · Semi-finished productsExtrusion and systemsScale: n/a
- Nemak PolandBielsko-Biała · CastingsHigh-pressure die castingsScale: n/a
- Ronal PolskaJelcz-Laskowice · CastingsCast alloy wheelsScale: ~3 m wheels/yr
- Ronal PolskaWałbrzych · CastingsCast alloy wheelsScale: ~2 m wheels/yr
- Federal-Mogul GorzyceGorzyce · CastingsAluminium pistonsScale: n/a
- Aluprof (Grupa Kęty)Bielsko-Biała · ProductsAluminium building systemsScale: segment revenue PLN 2.5 bn
- CanpackBrzesko · ProductsBeverage cans and endsScale: >12 bn ends/yr
- CanpackBydgoszcz · ProductsBeverage cansScale: expansion +1 bn cans/yr
- Ardagh Metal PackagingRadomsko · ProductsBeverage can bodiesScale: n/a
Milestones 2025–2035
Five areas of EU law are changing conditions for the aluminium chain: CBAM, sanctions and raw materials policy, packaging and deposit return, vehicles, and scrap shipments.
Deposit-return system in Poland
PLN 0.50 deposit per can; minimum collection rate 77%.
CBAM definitive period
Unwrought aluminium, semis and some products; scrap CN 7602 outside CBAM.
End of the quota for Russian aluminium
16th sanctions package; contracts concluded before 25 Feb 2025 until 31 Dec 2026.
PPWR applies
60% recycling of aluminium packaging by 2030; 90% separate collection of cans by 2029.
Waste exports outside the OECD
New rules of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157.
ELV – feasibility assessment
Minimum recycled aluminium content in new vehicles.
CBAM for downstream products?
Commission proposal: about 180 products and scrap as a precursor – in trilogue.
2030 targets
60% aluminium packaging recycling; end of the 2021–2030 indirect cost compensation period.
Recycled aluminium in vehicles
Latest application date of the ELV delegated act.
What can be gained by 2035
Three “what if” calculations at constant 2024 prices with rising labour productivity. Value added grows with output, while jobs can fall when productivity rises faster than output.
Value added incl. supply chain · EUR m
Persons employed incl. supply chain · people
Potentially avoided emissions · kt CO₂e
What would strengthen the chain
The report sets out five directions for public action.
- Keep energy costs competitive: indirect emission cost compensation until 2030 and long-term contracts for low-carbon electricity.
- Invest in alloy-specific sorting (LIBS, X-ray) of end-of-life scrap from buildings, vehicles and electrical equipment.
- Prepare the industry for CBAM and its possible extension – reporting guidance and an impact assessment for semi-finished producers.
- Make procedures predictable: shorter, digital permitting and waste shipment procedures.
- Treat the chain as one system in industrial, raw materials and energy policy, including CRMA projects.
Method in brief
AL-PL combines Eurostat statistics (SBS, PRODCOM, Comext, FIGARO) with company data and remelting physics. Every figure has a status:
Observation
Published statistical and company data – SBS, PRODCOM, Comext, annual reports.
Estimate
Observations combined with allocations and parameters – secondary output, yield, scrap collected.
Model result
Depends on counterfactual assumptions – supply chain, taxes, avoided emissions, scenarios.
Uncertainty
Monte Carlo 10,000 draws with a Gaussian copula; P5–P95 band and robustness tests.
Input–output
Leontief Type I and II model on the FIGARO 2023 table for Poland.
Mass balance
A = C + X − M and S = C × y – economics consistent with scrap physics.
Limitations
- Results are a gross contribution at fixed coefficients, not net policy effects.
- Secondary aluminium output and yield are not directly observed – the scrap collected estimate depends on them.
- Remelting ratios are calibrated on Alumetal’s 2022 accounts, a year of high margins.
The report was prepared with the help of artificial intelligence tools for data processing, modelling and text editing.
Download and cite
The full report contains the regulatory context, methodology, all parameters with ranges and sources, model checks, the list of installations and the bibliography.
IGMNiR (2026), Aluminium in the Polish economy: value, circularity and security of supply. An integrated assessment of the aluminium industry in Poland (AL-PL model), Economic Chamber of Non-Ferrous Metals and Recycling, November 2026.
Model run identifier: ALPL-1.0-6a8e3daed1