Supply and demand for non-ferrous metals
Production and usage forecasts for copper, zinc and lead from the international study groups ICSG and ILZSG – market balances, the supply chain, regions and an interactive world map.
Forecast map ·
List of countries on the map
- Mongolia – increase: Oyu Tolgoi
- Russia – increase: Malmyz, Svyatogor
- China – increase: Julong
- Peru – increase: Antamina
- Panama – increase: Cobre Panama – processing of stockpiled ore
- Chile – decrease: lower output
- DR Congo – decrease: Kamoa-Kakula
- Indonesia – decrease: Grasberg constrained; Batu Hijau ramping up
- Angola – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Botswana – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Brazil – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Ecuador – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Eritrea – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Philippines – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Greece – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- Turkey – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
- United States – smaller changes: smaller expansions and new mines
Map: Natural Earth (public domain). Colours show the direction of change named in the study groups’ releases, not its size.
CuCopper · forecast 2026–2027
Source: ICSG · 14.10.2026Next forecast: April 2027
Refined productionUsageMarket balance (kt)
Refining covers production from concentrates (primary) and from scrap (secondary). For 2027 ICSG expects primary output to rise by about 3% and secondary by about 4.7%.
What drives the forecast
- Mine output 2026: +1.3% (1.6% in April) – cut for Chile, China and Indonesia. Oyu Tolgoi, Batu Hijau, Malmyz, Julong, Svyatogor and Antamina grow; Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula remain constrained after the 2025 incidents.
- Mine output 2027: +3.1% – further ramp-ups, better output in Chile and Zambia, recovery in Indonesia and the DRC.
- Refining: +0.4% and +3.4% – in 2026 scarce concentrates hold back electrolytic output while SX-EW and scrap-based output grow; in 2027 new smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India and the EU.
- Usage: +1.5% and +2.5% – China +2.5% in 2026 (59% of world usage), rest of the world flat; in 2027 Asia drives growth, the EU and Japan stay weak. Support: energy transition, urbanisation, data centres and AI.
Europe and Poland
EU: refined output rises from 2.39 Mt in 2025 to 2.85 Mt in 2027 (+19%), usage from 2.96 to 3.03 Mt, mine output from 0.75 to 0.80 Mt. ICSG sees EU demand as subdued. The release gives no figures for Poland.
Change from the April 2026 forecast
- Mine output 2026
- +1.6% → +1.3%
- Balance 2026
- +96 → +104 kt
- Balance 2027
- unchanged, about +368 kt
Copper by ICSG region · kt
| Region | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Change 2025–2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia excl. ASEAN and CIS | 2,845 | 3,016 | 3,156 | +10.9% |
| Latin America | 8,733 | 8,675 | 8,990 | +2.9% |
| Africa | 4,478 | 4,584 | 5,179 | +15.7% |
| EU | 750 | 768 | 796 | +6.1% |
| North America | 2,231 | 2,311 | 2,380 | +6.7% |
| Other Europe | 1,588 | 1,724 | 1,817 | +14.4% |
| ASEAN-10 | 745 | 707 | 953 | +27.9% |
| Asia – CIS | 975 | 995 | 1,026 | +5.2% |
| Oceania | 835 | 767 | 881 | +5.5% |
| Sum of regions | 23,180 | 23,547 | 25,178 | |
| World – adjusted | 23,180 | 23,485 | 24,217 | +4.5% |
| Region | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Change 2025–2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia excl. ASEAN and CIS | 16,692 | 17,212 | 17,633 | +5.6% |
| Latin America | 2,057 | 2,053 | 2,140 | +4.0% |
| Africa | 3,111 | 3,234 | 3,653 | +17.4% |
| EU | 2,389 | 2,541 | 2,846 | +19.1% |
| North America | 1,597 | 1,608 | 1,670 | +4.6% |
| Other Europe | 1,294 | 1,315 | 1,363 | +5.3% |
| ASEAN-10 | 497 | 536 | 867 | +74.4% |
| Asia – CIS | 484 | 491 | 486 | +0.4% |
| Oceania | 455 | 304 | 356 | −21.8% |
| Sum of regions | 28,576 | 29,294 | 31,014 | |
| World – adjusted | 28,578 | 28,693 | 29,673 | +3.8% |
| Region | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Change 2025–2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia excl. ASEAN and CIS | 20,119 | 20,452 | 20,903 | +3.9% |
| Latin America | 391 | 391 | 402 | +2.8% |
| Africa | 193 | 192 | 183 | −5.2% |
| EU | 2,961 | 2,994 | 3,026 | +2.2% |
| North America | 2,235 | 2,260 | 2,380 | +6.5% |
| Other Europe | 917 | 943 | 1,012 | +10.4% |
| ASEAN-10 | 1,235 | 1,251 | 1,292 | +4.6% |
| Asia – CIS | 107 | 107 | 107 | 0.0% |
| Oceania | – | – | – | – |
| Sum of regions | 28,158 | 28,590 | 29,305 | |
| World – adjusted | 28,159 | 28,590 | 29,305 | +4.1% |
ICSG world totals are adjusted for supply disruptions and concentrate availability, so they are lower than the sum of regions. Oceania: usage not given in the release. Change 2025–2027 calculated from the ICSG table.
ZnZinc · forecast 2026–2027
Source: ILZSG · 19.10.2026
Refined productionUsageMarket balance (kt)
Refined zinc output grows in 2026 only thanks to China (+3.7%); outside China it falls by 2% on limited concentrate supply and rising energy costs.
What drives the forecast
- Usage: +1.4% and +1.2% – to 14.02 and 14.19 Mt. China +1.8% in 2026 and only +0.3% in 2027 (weak real estate, lower infrastructure investment and vehicle output; exports of manufactured goods support activity).
- Mine output: −2.6% and +3% – 12.40 Mt in 2026 after +6.3% in 2025: lower output at Antamina, Garpenberg and Red Dog, Lady Loretta closed; growth at Kipushi and Aljustrel. In 2027 new capacity in China, Rosh Pinah and Gamsberg.
- Smelters: +0.9% and +2% – 13.93 and 14.21 Mt. In 2026 growth only in China, a marked fall in Europe. In 2027 more concentrates, Boliden’s Odda expansion and the start of the Verkhny Ufaley smelter in Russia.
- Balance: −88 and +25 kt – a deficit in 2026, a small surplus in 2027.
Europe and Poland
European zinc demand rose by 4.6% in 2025 after three years of decline; in 2026 it will grow by 0.3% – notably in Germany, Italy and Poland, with declines in France and the UK. European smelter output will fall substantially in 2026.
PbLead · forecast 2026–2027
Source: ILZSG · 19.10.2026
Refined productionUsageMarket balance (kt)
Refined lead output (13.9 Mt) is more than three times mine output (4.4 Mt), as it also includes production from secondary materials.
What drives the forecast
- Usage: +0.9% and +1% – to 13.79 and 13.92 Mt. China only +0.2% in 2026 (lower lead-acid battery exports and vehicle output, stable replacement market). In 2027 growth in Europe, India and the US.
- Mine output: −2.8% and +2.9% – 4.44 Mt in 2026: declines in Russia and Sweden (seismic activity at Garpenberg), growth in Portugal (Aljustrel) and Australia. In 2027 4.58 Mt – new capacity in Australia, rebound in China (+4.1%).
- Refining: +1% and +1.5% – 13.88 and 14.08 Mt. In 2026 growth in India, Korea, Türkiye and Brazil (new secondary capacity from 2025), lower in China; in 2027 China recovers, Europe dips slightly.
- Balance: +90 and +163 kt – the surplus widens in 2027.
Europe and Poland
European lead demand will grow by 1.3% in 2026 – notably in Germany, Greece, Poland, Slovenia and Spain, with declines in France and the UK. European mine output falls in 2026 (Russia, Sweden) while Portugal grows; European refined output dips slightly in 2027.
Methodology
- Balance
- refined metal production minus refined usage; a positive value is a surplus, a negative one a deficit.
- Apparent usage
- production plus net imports and changes in reported stocks. For China ICSG does not include unreported stocks (state reserves, producers, traders, bonded warehouses).
- ICSG adjustment
- world copper supply is reduced by a disruption allowance (average forecast deviations over 5 years) and by the gap between concentrate availability and use in primary refining.
- Units
- thousand or million tonnes of metal (copper content for copper). 2025 values for zinc and lead are shown only where the release states them.
Forecasts may differ from outcomes. ICSG notes that factors such as the conflict in the Middle East and unforeseen events may change the balance.
Sources and releases
- International Copper Study Group (ICSG)Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027 – release of 14.10.2026 (Lisbon meeting, 13–14.10.2026)
- International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)Session/Forecasts – release of 19.10.2026 (71st Session, Lisbon, 15–16.10.2026)
- Natural Earthmap outlines 1:110m, public domain
As of 22.10.2026
This page presents the forecasts of the international study groups, translated and visualised; it is not a forecast by the Chamber. Figures from ICSG and ILZSG.