Analysis · November 2026
Copper in the German economyvalue, circularity and security of supply
Germany has no copper mine, yet it is Europe's largest user of refined copper. Secondary copper – refined and directly melted – supplies 39% of first-use copper, and the value chain with its suppliers generates EUR 6.3 bn of value added and 65,600 jobs.
At a glance
6,328EUR m
gross value added – copper chain with domestic suppliers
65,587jobs
in the copper chain and at its German suppliers
459kt
of secondary copper – 244 kt refined and about 215 kt from directly melted scrap
39%
of first-use copper in Germany comes from secondary materials
13.7Mt
of copper in use – in buildings, infrastructure and products (164 kg per person)
1,281kt CO₂e
of potentially avoided emissions per year from secondary copper – mainly in mining countries
Central values for 2024. The line under each figure shows the 90% uncertainty band (P5–P95) against a scale from zero. Gross contribution, not net effects; taxes are an attribution, not a fiscal balance.
Seven findings
EUR 6.3 bn of value added
In 2024 the extended copper value chain generated about EUR 4,070 m of gross value added and employed about 41,400 people; with the domestic supply chain, EUR 6,330 m and about 65,600 jobs. Semi-finished products and castings account for 44% of direct value added.
Recycling: EUR 860 m directly
Scrap collection and trading and secondary copper refining generated EUR 860 m of value added and about 5,800 jobs, or EUR 1,550 m with the supply chain. A further EUR 340 m or so is attributable pro rata to semi-finished producers melting scrap directly.
EUR 2.4 bn for public finances
About EUR 2,410 m of taxes and contributions excluding VAT are associated with the chain, mainly on labour. Copper producers received EUR 55.2 m of electricity price compensation for 2024, of which Aurubis AG EUR 30.1 m.
13.7 Mt of copper in use
The dynamic model puts the copper stock in buildings, infrastructure and products at about 164 kg per person. End-of-life products released about 500 kt of copper in 2024, of which about 260 kt was recovered.
1.28 Mt CO₂e potentially avoided
Assuming 1:1 substitution of world-average primary copper, German secondary copper potentially avoided about 1,280 kt CO₂e, 43 Mt of tailings and 26 million m³ of water use – mainly in mining countries.
Dependence on imported concentrate and anodes
Refined copper output equals 62% of consumption. Concentrate imports are concentrated (HHI 1,877; Chile 31%), while scrap circulates mainly within Europe in both directions. Germany is a net exporter of semi-finished products, including wire.
High circularity needs more scrap
In the high-circularity scenario (2035) secondary refining reaches its assumed capacity of 300 kt; the additional secondary feed exceeds the growth in domestic scrap projected by the dynamic model by about 68 kt of copper.
From scrap and concentrate to cables – five links
The CU‑DE model covers scrap collection and trading, secondary and primary copper refining at the Aurubis plants in Hamburg and Lünen, semi-finished products, wire rod and castings, and the copper in wires and cables.
Scrap collection and trading
Purchase, sorting and trading of copper scrap
- EUR m GVA
- 608
- jobs
- 4,530
Secondary refined copper
Aurubis plants – secondary share (Lünen, Hamburg)
- EUR m GVA
- 251
- jobs
- 1,310
Primary refined copper
Hamburg smelter and refinery – concentrate and anodes
- EUR m GVA
- 364
- jobs
- 1,910
Semi-finished products, wire rod and castings
Wieland, KME, Diehl, Aurubis Stolberg and others
- EUR m GVA
- 1,790
- jobs
- 19,290
Wires and cables
Copper share of cable production
- EUR m GVA
- 1,058
- jobs
- 14,320
Semi-finished products and cables
industry · energy · automotive · exports
+EUR 5.9 bntrade surplus in copper semi-finished products, 2024
Economy
Value added, jobs, taxes and support
Environment
Avoided emissions, tailings and water
Strategy
Coverage of consumption, trade, copper in use
EUR 6.3 bn of value added and 65,600 jobs
Domestic suppliers add EUR 2,257 m of value added and about 24,200 jobs, and employee spending EUR 1,876 m and about 21,500 jobs. The recycling chain has a higher multiplier (1.80) because it buys more domestic services and transport.
- Direct
- Supply chain
- Employee spending
Gross value added, EUR m
Jobs
Gross contribution at fixed inter-industry coefficients, not net jobs. Value added per person is highest at the smelters (EUR 191 k) and EUR 93 k in semi-finished products and castings.
Taxes EUR 2.4 bn, compensation EUR 55 m
About EUR 2,410 m of taxes and contributions excluding VAT are associated with the chain – 77% of them on labour. Copper producers received EUR 55.2 m of electricity price compensation for 2024.
Taxes and contributions by source, EUR m, 2024
Electricity price compensation, EUR m, 2024
SourceTaxes excluding VAT; only Aurubis AG income taxes (EUR 9.0 m) are observed, the rest are model estimates – an attribution, not a fiscal balance. Compensation according to DEHSt beneficiary lists.
459 kt of secondary copper – by two routes
The smelters refine scrap and other secondary materials into cathodes, while semi-finished producers and foundries melt clean scrap directly. Direct melt is not reported – CU‑DE estimates it as the difference between copper in semi-finished products and refined copper use.
kt Cu, 2024
Domestic supply of secondary copper – two methods, kt Cu
- Old scrap (dynamic model) · 260
- New scrap · 102
- Residual estimate (feed minus net imports) · 392
SourceDirect melt: copper in semi-finished products (1,129 kt) minus refined copper in semi-finished products (914 kt); range 150–290 kt. The bottom-up domestic supply differs from the residual by 30 kt.
13.7 Mt of copper in buildings, grids and products
The dynamic model of copper in use (1960–2035) links the industry to the stock from which old scrap flows. The stock has levelled off because outflows from earlier cohorts now match inflows.
Copper stock in use in Germany, Mt Cu
Stock in use by application, Mt Cu, 2024
Secondary copper: lower footprint, avoided mining burdens
A tonne of world primary cathode carries about 3.64 t CO₂e, the screening footprint of the secondary route in Lünen 1.52 t. Direct melting of clean scrap skips the refining step and adds only about 0.40 t.
Carbon footprint of a tonne of copper, t CO₂e (cradle to gate)
Potentially avoided emissions, 2024
1.28 Mt CO₂e
Potentially avoided emissions by variant, kt CO₂e
What German secondary copper avoids
- About 43 Mt of tailings and 26 million m³ of (blue) water use a year – in mining regions, not in Germany.
- 585 kt CO₂e from secondary refined copper and 697 kt from direct melt, which skips the refining step.
- Counting only domestic scrap supply – 960 kt CO₂e; only end-of-life copper – 528 kt.
The avoided burdens arise mainly in mining and smelting countries – they are not a reduction in the German inventory. The result depends more on the reference variant (447–1,524 kt) than on plant inventories.
Importer of concentrate and cathodes, exporter of semis
Germany imports copper at early processing stages and exports it at later ones. Scrap is traded both ways – imported mainly from the Netherlands, France and Switzerland, exported to China, Poland and the Netherlands, among others.
Copper trade balance by processing stage, EUR m
- Semi-finished products (incl. wire)
- Refined copper
- Copper scrap
- Concentrate
Largest partners, 2025 · 491 kt
- NL101.5
- FR44.7
- CH44.2
- AT38.9
- DK37.5
- PL26.8
- IT25.3
- CZ24.7
Largest partners, 2025 · 409 kt
- CN53.5
- PL50.2
- NL48.9
- IN47.8
- BE41.4
- AT28.3
- IT22.7
- SK11.0
Where the copper industry operates in Germany
The Aurubis smelters are in Hamburg and Lünen. Semi-finished products are made mainly in North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, in Osnabrück and Hettstedt, and cables in Nuremberg, Cologne, Mannheim and Stuttgart, among others.
- Smelters and refineries
- Semi-finished products, wire rod and castings
- Wires and cables
- Recycling
- Mining project
List of plants
- AurubisHamburg · Smelters and refineriesprimary smelter and refinery; wire rod
- AurubisLünen · Smelters and refineriessecondary smelter (KRS)
- Aurubis StolbergStolberg · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsstrip and specialty wire
- Schwermetall HalbzeugwerkStolberg · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingspre-rolled strip
- Deutsche Giessdraht (Aurubis)Emmerich · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingswire rod
- Wieland-WerkeUlm, Vöhringen · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsstrip; tubes; rods
- WielandVelbert-Langenberg · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsrods and wire
- WielandVillingen-Schwenningen · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsstrip
- KME GermanyOsnabrück · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsstrip; tubes; moulds
- KME Mansfeld (MKM)Hettstedt · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingswire; strip; tubes
- Diehl MetallRöthenbach · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsbrass rods and strip
- Sundwiger Messingwerk (KME)Hemer · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsbrass strip
- Gebr. KemperOlpe · Semi-finished products, wire rod and castingsstrip and castings
- LEONINürnberg · Wires and cableswires and cables
- NKTKöln · Wires and cablespower cables
- Prysmian (Draka)Neustadt b. Coburg · Wires and cablescables
- SüdkabelMannheim · Wires and cableshigh-voltage cables
- LappStuttgart · Wires and cablescables
- TSR RecyclingLünen · Recyclingferrous and non-ferrous scrap
- Kupferschiefer LausitzSpremberg · Mining projectcopper project (spatial compatibility not established, 2023; new review pending)
Milestones 2024–2030
Copper production in Germany is shaped by electricity costs and their compensation, the EU ETS, EU raw-materials and trade policy, and the rules on waste shipments.
Electricity tax at the EU minimum
Manufacturing in 2024–2025 – EUR 0.50/MWh (§ 9b StromStG).
EU Steel and Metals Action Plan
Metal supply and scrap availability.
Customs surveillance of scrap
Monitoring of imports and exports of ferrous, aluminium and copper scrap.
Compensation for 2024 costs
EUR 2.78 bn, of which EUR 370 m for non-ferrous metals.
RESourceEU
Copper scrap measures to be considered if needed.
Electricity tax relief made permanent
EU ETS free allocation for 2026–2030.
Industrial electricity price
Scheme approved by the Commission: EUR 50/MWh for 2026–2028.
Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 applies
New waste shipment rules; exports outside the OECD from May 2027.
CRMA strategic project
Second Aurubis TBRC converter in Lünen.
CRMA benchmarks and end of EU ETS phase 4
Copper a strategic raw material; Commission CBAM scope report in 2027.
More circularity needs more scrap
Three what-if calculations in 2024 prices, with labour productivity rising 1% a year. Old scrap recovery follows from the dynamic model.
Value added with supply chain · EUR m
Jobs with supply chain · persons
Secondary copper · kt
Method in brief
CU‑DE applies to Germany the integrated IGMNiR model developed for copper, zinc and lead in Poland, and extends it with a dynamic model of copper in use, emission inventories for the Hamburg and Lünen plants and a replication package.
Scope and allocation
Five segments D1–D5; Aurubis plants from reports, D4 as the residual of NACE 24.44 structural statistics.
Copper mass balance
Secondary refined copper (BGR) and direct melt; domestic supply residually and bottom-up.
Copper in use
Inflow-driven stock model 1960–2035, five applications, normally distributed lifetimes.
Economy and taxes
Leontief input–output model, type I and II, on the FIGARO 2024 table; compensation outside value added.
Environment
Screening inventories of the Hamburg and Lünen routes against ICA primary cathode; tailings, water.
Strategy and uncertainty
Coverage ratios, HHI, stress tests; Monte Carlo 10,000 draws, variants and scenarios.
Limitations
- Results are gross contributions at fixed coefficients, not net policy effects; taxes are an attribution, not a fiscal balance.
- Direct scrap melt is not reported – estimate of 215 kt (range 150–290 kt).
- Emission inventories are screening-level, not ISO 14044 life-cycle assessments; avoided burdens arise mainly outside Germany.
- The dynamic model relies on inflow anchored to European data; the projection depends on lifetimes and the inflow level.
The report was prepared using artificial intelligence tools for data processing, modelling and editing.
Download and cite
The full report contains the regulatory context, methodology, dynamic model, all parameters with ranges and sources, control tests, the plant register and the bibliography.
IGMNiR (2026), Copper in the German economy: value, circularity and security of supply. An integrated assessment of the copper industry in Germany (CU-DE model), Economic Chamber of Non-Ferrous Metals and Recycling, November 2026.
Model run identifier: CUDE-1.0-d63adeda8b